Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House? Here Is What the Data Says in 2026

This might be the single most common question I get asked, in some form, almost every week. Is now a good time to buy a house? Should I wait for rates to drop? Are prices about to crash? So instead of giving you a gut feeling, let’s walk through what the actual numbers say right now, and what they mean for someone in your shoes.

The short answer

If you have the financial means and a stable income, this is a reasonable time to buy. It is a buyer’s market right now, with sellers outnumbering buyers by roughly 49 percent nationally. That gives you real leverage at the negotiating table. At the same time, mortgage rates are elevated and a little unpredictable, and the broader economy still feels uncertain to a lot of people. So the honest answer is that it depends less on the market and more on your own financial picture.

Let’s break down why.

Home prices are still rising, just much more slowly

The median home price nationally sits around $409,000, up about 2.2 percent from last year. That is still a record high in raw dollar terms. However, the pace of growth has slowed way down. Prices climbed roughly 7 percent a year between 2012 and early 2020. Since 2025, that growth has cooled to around 1 percent a year.

In other words, home values are no longer sprinting the way they were a few years ago. They are settling into a much steadier, more sustainable climb. For buyers, that is good news. It means the ground is not shifting under you the way it once was.

Mortgage rates are the real wildcard

As of early July 2026, the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate sits around 6.63 percent, up from the previous month and noticeably higher than it was six months ago. Ongoing tension in the Middle East has added volatility to global energy prices and financial markets, and that ripple effect has kept mortgage rates elevated and harder to predict.

Rates matter because they directly shape your monthly payment. On a median priced home with 20 percent down, moving from a 6.00 percent rate to a 7.25 percent rate adds close to $270 to your monthly payment, and roughly $107,000 over the life of the loan. That is a meaningful difference, so it is worth shopping around and comparing lenders rather than locking in with the first offer you get.

Buyers have more leverage than they have had in years

Housing inventory has climbed to nearly 1.5 million active listings nationally. That is still historically low, but it is the highest level since before the pandemic. More listings mean more competition among sellers, and that shifts real negotiating power toward buyers.

At the same time, demand remains soft. Many buyers have been sitting on the sidelines for years, waiting for affordability to improve, and a large share of listings are sitting on the market for close to two months before selling. Homes are increasingly selling below asking price, and more buyers are backing out of signed agreements than in past years.

Put simply, if you are financially ready to buy, sellers right now are more likely to negotiate than they have been in a long time.

Location still matters more than the national headlines

National numbers only tell part of the story, because local markets vary widely. Buyers have the most leverage in Sun Belt markets, where new construction has pushed inventory up quickly. Meanwhile, a handful of markets in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest are still seeing strong demand for affordable homes, which keeps sellers firmly in charge there.

That is exactly why national headlines can be misleading. Before you decide whether now is the right time to buy where you live, it is worth having a real conversation with a local agent who knows what is actually happening on your specific streets, not just what the national data says.

A few practical tips if you are buying in this market

• Stick to your real budget. This is not the time to stretch. Make sure you could still cover your mortgage payment even if your income changed.
• Use your negotiating leverage. With more inventory and more homes selling below asking, this is a good market to make a fair, well reasoned offer rather than overpaying out of fear.
• Shop your mortgage rate. Rates are elevated but not fixed in stone. Compare multiple lenders, and ask about float down options in case rates drop after you lock in.
• Consider selling before you buy. If you already own a home, selling first can give you a clearer budget and help you avoid carrying two mortgages at once.

So, should you buy now?

The honest answer is that it depends on your own finances more than it depends on the market. Rates are elevated, the economy still feels uncertain, and headlines are mixed. But if your income is stable, your savings are solid, and you have found a home that fits your life, a buyer’s market with this much inventory and this much room to negotiate does not come around every year.

If you want a second opinion on what this means for your specific situation and your local market, I am always happy to talk it through with you, no pressure attached.

Ryan Tesnow MPA, REALTOR, Broker Associate, Licensed in FL Coldwell Banker Premier Phone: 254.206.5020 Email: RyanTesnow@PremierMove.com Website: RealEstate-WithRyan.com

Market data referenced above comes from Redfin’s July 2026 housing market analysis.